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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.