Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.